What price Scotland?

by Steve Wedd

Scotland_Haggis The SNP is going to take Scotland. Labour will join the Tories who have already disappeared from the electoral map there.

With whom will SNP deal on 8-12 May? Despite what they and the English parties protest ahead of the vote, deals will be made – they have to be made. Someone has to ‘govern’.

At what price will the SNP deal?

Their two basic ideals are to evict the missile boats from Faslane and to quit the United Kingdom.

In 2014 the referendum was 55% in favour of staying put. That was based on an electorate then enjoying six MPs representing the SNP. The majority of Scottish voters favoured Labour or the LibDems in the last General Election.

The quixotic result is that although Alex Salmond lost the vote and consequently his post, his party gained fantastic coverage and popular support. Ms Sturgeon now rides that wave of good feeling, to her advantage.

Now, if the SNP does trounce the Labour party and or the LibDems in May 2015, they will not only control Scotland but also hold the balance of power for the UK Parliament. There’s no one else in sight – no one sane anyway.

This could mean that for the next five years only, that party could sell its favours at the price mentioned above – outing the nukes and outing England and Wales.

Lets assume so. Building on the very close result from the 2014 referendum, added to which would be new impetus from a successful GE result, if I were the fishy pair, I would not resist the temptation to call for a new referendum in 2017-18.

If that was called and held and the vote then swung in favour of dissolution, then Independence must follow, and before the 2020 GE. That could mean that by the time of the next election, Scotland is an independent state, with no interest in the wider picture, no votes south of the border and no influence in England and Wales.

They would therefore be in charge of Scotland’s affairs thenceforward and forever. No longer would the Kingdom be United, and no longer would MPs from Scotland vote on Union matters.

The damage done, the SNP would separate the UK into some of its constituent parts, whereupon the normal rule that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts evaporates.

When Alex Salmond pulls Sturgeons strings and directs with whom she will deal, the price must be those the two ideals for the Scots – nuclear subs and independence.

In order to get power in Scotland, the SNP will trade five years of UK wide power to achieve their narrow aim of breaking it up. Will the attraction of UK wide power overwhelm the Labour party, who could sell Scotland to the Nats for a session in power?

In five years time, the SNP will have power in Scotland and Scotland alone, none in England Wales and Northern Ireland, the Union will be dissolved, and it will be a return to two party politics in the South. A prime example of short-term advantage with long-term effects. I leave you to judge if those effects are negative or positive. Hoots mon.

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